A reminder that Addington is the day meeting.

Also, the TAB is running their Hot Hound promotion tomorrow – money back in bonus up to $30.

https://www.tab.co.nz/punters/greyhound/offers/hot-hound

Updates after each race.

David

 

Recommended Bets – 10 Units

M3 R2 Mitcham Ryder (2) 1 unit WIN @ $6.50, 1 unit TOP# @ $2.05 Second 2.05 units returned

M3 R5 Hilton Hope (1) 2 units @ $2.25 First 4.5 units returned

M3 R6 Smash Achiever (1) 2 units @ $3.00 Second – 2 bonus units returned (Hot Hound promotion)

M3 R8 Monty Mad Hammer (2) 3 units @ $2.30 First 6.3 units returned

M3 R11 Homebush Monkey (6) 1 unit WINSURANCE @ $9 Second 1 unit returned

Not a bad day.  Two wins and three seconds … with a little luck we could have had a nice chunk of money for our Kiwisaver accounts.  $13.85 units returned in cash (forgot Winsurance gives us back cash!) plus another 2 bonus units for a total of 15.85 units.

 

 

M3 R2 Mitcham Ryder (2)

Based on his numbers, I think Mitcham Ryder is well over his true price.  He’s only had two runs from boxes 1 and 2 since early December and he’s rated 79 and and 82 – both times better than any other dog has run here.  It’s not an ideal draw but almost unbelievably none of the other runners has yet to win from the box they are drawn while at least he’s won from box 2.  He has the best opening sectional in the last month but he’s also got strong closing sectionals too.  So anything like a decent start should have him out in front and hard to run down.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price $3 currently $6.5

Second.  Money back without ever threatening to win but on the other hand was a low risk TOP 3 bet.  A better start would have made things interesting but that’s dog racing.

M3 R5 Hilton Hope (1)

Up in class but Hilton Hope has the best time over the distance and is unbeaten off the inside two boxes.  Tabby shouldn’t be an early threat from box 2.  Mitcham Queen (3) has been in great form but is also up in class.  Based on their sectionals, Hilton Hope should be able to hold the rail and the should be the winning of the race.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price $2 currently 2.25

Nice win even though a little slow away.

M3 R6 Smash Achiever (1)

A couple of things to like here.  It’s a C3 race and while Smash Achiever won last in C2, she was running in C4 and C5 races back in December.  She has a great record from box 1 (5 wins from 8 starts) while Regal Jock in box 2 looks to head away from the rail.  Super Over Drama (4) has found some form recently but box 4 makes it a little tougher as does the speed map.  It’s always the case that the start will be crucial but I like the draw for Smash Achiever and she looks well placed in this.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price $2.6 currently $3

Second – Super Over Drama ignored the speed map and that was the winning and losing of the race.

M3 R8 Monty Mad Hammer (2)

He’s been super impressive on the way up but has found the last couple of races in C4 a lot tougher.  Two things are different today.  With the greatest of respect, this is not the best C4 field we will see at Addington.  Second I think box 2 suits more than box 1 and there’s not a lot of speed either side.  Like a lot of dogs, he just needs a bit of clear air and then he can show his best.  We were on Trousseau last week when he was beaten from box 1 but even though he missed the jump a bit he put himself right in the race.  Hilton Headache (4) was also in the race and has been a consistent bridesmaid in C4 but the draw isn’t a help.  However, she does have early speed as we have seen.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price $2.2 currently $2.3

First.  Exacta of the day in retrospect.  Once again, he showed the inside boxes aren’t ideal but as the analysis and data supported, he was the dog to beat and once he got round the outside it was all over.  Bookies may have got a bit of a blood nose on that – $2.30 was pretty generous.

M3 R11 Homebush Monkey (6)

It’s really hard to see Bolty beaten but there’s no value at $1.25 and we’ve seen dogs at that price get beaten.  The one dog that shows up in the opening sectionals is Homebush Monkey (6).  He has three of the top five opening sectionals in the last 90 days – if he picks the jump as we saw a couple weeks backs, he’s almost impossible to catch.  He is hit and miss but there doesn’t seem like a lot of early speed in this.  Winsurance option is $9 to run int he top 4 with money back for second, third and fourth.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price $8 currently $16

Second and bonus money back.  Nice quinella and made the exotics easier too.