The normal two meetings with races today at Addington (M3) and Palmerston North (M9).

Not a lot of confident bets again today.  We got one at almost double figure odds yesterday but again confidence levels weren’t high.  On top of that, a couple I really liked and was going to make bets have been scratched.

I’ll post updates during the day.

David

Recommended Bets – 6 Units

M3 Race 10 Curve Crusher (3) 2 units win @ 1.95 First 3.9 units returned

M9 Race 8 Big Time Glory (7) 2 units win @ 1.95 Missed

M9 Race 12 Broke Bad (8) 1 unit win @ 5.50 First 5.5 units returned

M9 Race 12 Broke Bad (8) 1 unit top 3 @ 1.70 First 1.7 units returned

6 units out and 11.1 units back so a nice profit for the day.

 

M3 Race 10 Curve Crusher (3)

The form doesn’t look inspiring but the connections thought enough that he’s been having a crack at the Golden Chase in Palmerston North.  He’s unbeaten over the trip (2 from 2) and has good stats from boxes 2 and 4.  There doesn’t look to be blistering speed in this – in any case, the speed is largely on his outside.  If he can get a clear get away, he’s got the closing sectionals to win.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price $1.9 currently $1.95

First. Pretty much to script – just needed to get to the rail and once he got parity it was pretty much all over.

M9 Race 8 Big Time Glory (7)

Back after a break so worth just checking there’s no major weight variance.  Last time over 457m she drew box 1 and was not happy there so box 7 in a small field should suit perfectly.  She has the best opening and closing sectionals and the best time over the distance so she looks well placed.  The obvious danger is Mason in box 2 but he would have to show some improvement on his 4 starts over the 457m.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price $1.8 currently $1.95

Fourth.  Given the stats and the tote support, that was a very disappointing effort.  Never in it and the second best was the best on the day.

M9 R12 Broke Bad (8)

He’s a strong closer who loves the outside draw.  On Commentators’ Day, he used box 8 to his advantage and stormed home for second in a much tougher race.  Thrilling Morris in box 7 could potentially help as he angles in a little so could help give Brad clear air.  I had Brad rated a lot shorter so some potential value.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price $3 currently $5.5

First.  Another race that went very much to script.  To be fair, we couldn’t have hoped for a better start and once he got to a comfortable second at the end of the back straight, that $5.50 was looking exceptionally good money.