Good morning.  Have received support and counselling after the rough day yesterday so start afresh this week.

We still made a profit last week on the strategy bets and that was without including a $9 winner from Monday – hopefully some backed it anyway.  I aim to provide a weekly summary – warts and all.  You can check out last week’s performance here.

Two meetings today.  There’s no sectional data at all for Forbury Park plus they don’t race as frequently as Addington so it can be challenging for punting.

Good punting!


Recommended Bets – 5 Units

M9 Race 4 Stumpy Bill (2) 2 units FF win @ $2.60 Second

M9 Race 8 Miss June (1) 2 units FF win @ $2.90 Second

M9 Race 11 Sozin’s Sympathy (1) 1 unit FF win @ $3.60 First

A small loss for the day but a day where you feel we were close to a good day.  Back again for Addington and Palmerston North tomorrow.

M9 Race 4 Stumpy Bill (2)

Bill has had a pretty rough run of draws – he hasn’t drawn inside 3 in his last 9 starts and in his last 5 starts has been box 7 or 8 four times.  So the much improved draw should make the difference today.  It doesn’t look the toughest field on paper and Bill shows up strongly for both the best opening sectionals and the best closing sectionals.  The map shows there’s not a lot of early speed in the race although Usain Bale in 3 is one that could pop up.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price $2.40 currently $2.60

Second.  Just missed away a length or two and in the end that was the difference.  Usain Bale showed acceleration to get out in front and they just couldn’t peg him back.

M9 Race 8 Miss June (1)

Another who has had a really bad run of box draws is Miss June.  She downgraded last start and was actually racing in C3 five starts back so this is considerably easier.  I’d prefer her one out ideally but she does have a good record from box 1 (7-2-5) and you think Homebush Cool won’t be a threat from box 2.  She’s drawn inside box 4 just once 7 starts.  The two starts prior back in early February she drew boxes 1 and 2 and ran second and first and those races were in C2.  She’s been struggling recently but there’s enough positive changes here today to see her get back in winning form.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price $2.50 currently $2.90

Second.  Second second of the day!  Jumped ok was in the race but just found one better on the day. Mitcham Goldie managed to run his opening split in more than a length better than he’d previously run.

M9 Race 11 Sozin’s Sympathy (1)

I’m not a great fan of the draw but it looks such a weak field that if Sozin’s Sympathy can get away without any trouble, from the draw he has the strongest closing sectionals and has run superior times to the rest of the field he should be winning.  I expect Iylah Jewel (6) to show up early but she is a weak closer.  Elite Blueblood (8) is another who could show up early but she has shown little in recent starts.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price $2.50 currently $3.60

First.  Once she got out in front it was as good as over.  She almost halved from her opening price so if you got on at the $3.60 it made up for the earlier frustrations.