Update at 11.55

Addington selections added.  No further selections.  Updates after selections until 5.30.

Update at 11

Just the two recommended bets at PN.  Once again some very even races with a couple of races with standouts who are too short to back.  I will have any bets for Addington by 12.

Selections are free today in association with PN Greyhounds.

If you haven’t checkout the site before, the aim of this site is to find runners where we have confidence and believe there is value.  So I don’t attempt to provide selections for every race.

I also suggest a staking plan based on units – a unit might be $5, $10 or $100 but the idea is that over a long period of time we have more units at the end than we did at the start.  The last couple of weeks have been a little down but over the past 12 months, the selections and strategy have made a reasonable profit.

The first two races at Manawatu are Double Ups so have posted some early thoughts.  I’ll update by 11am Tuesday morning.

David

Recommended Bets – 5 Units

M3 Race 6 Slippery Suzie (5) 1 unit FF win @ 5.50 Missed

M3 Race 12 Portland Berty (8) 1 unit FF win @ 2.70 Missed

M9 Race 4 Mitcham Queen (3) .05 unit FF win @ 7 Third

M9 Race 4 Mitcham Queen (3) .05 unit TOP 3 @ 2.2 Third 1.1 unit returned

M9 Race 7 Homebush Bomber (1) 1 unit FF win @ 3.70 First 3.7 units returned

M9 Race 12 Bees Are Buzzing (1) 1 unit FF win @ 3.00

 

M3 Palmerston North

Race 1 – TAB Double Up Race

A tough way to start the day – but a great race name sponsor!  It’s always hard to line up the C0 races – Jonah had a debut win at Hatrick over 520m so first time up at Palmerston North.  Tuff Admiral has had his supporters in recent weeks but i’m not sure the inside draw suits.  Versace (2) maps to be on the early pace – so long as she can avoid Admiral in box 1.  Bert closed nicely last week (8) but you’d want to see a little more early speed.  It won’t be a strategy bet but if I had to select on at likely value a small nibble, I think Versace is worth an each way play.  She managed to head Jonah on Wednesday although she was run down.  If she got out in front and there was trouble behind, she could be the upsetter.

Race 2 – TAB Double Up Race

Power Boom (2) is likely to be short priced here.  Got beaten last start at Whanganui when beaten off the lids.  Maps to be out in front but will need to as Gazza’s Girl (1) runs wide and I suspect Double Header (3) will initially head left.  If Power Boom can avoid those runners, he’s run time here that would win most C1 races.  The one to watch is Uncle Albert (7).  He’s slow off the lids and that doesn’t help but the wider draw should suit, especially if there’s any trouble on the inside.

Race 6 Slippery Suzie (5)

This is a pretty average C1 race and Slippery Suzie and Xanthone (1) look the obvious picks.  Xanthone has shown up a couple of times – generally bombing an otherwise winning selection!  But she doesn’t have a great record over the distance here.  Like her brother Zamah, she can be inconsistent.  I think she’s a winning chance but on paper $1.90 is to short.  I think the value is Suzie – I have her priced shorter and she downgrades today and has the second best time here over the distance.  She also maps to lead which is an obvious boost.  The saver would be a quinella with Xanthone.  The other dog that shows up in ratings and sectionals is an old favourite in Little Scamp but she is 5 now and you would think the two favorite dos should have her covered.

Confidence 1/5

Rated priced 3.2 currently 5.5

Missed.  Didn’t show the box speed that was expected and that was the race.  Xanthone wasn’t any value but hard to find the winner having his first sprint race.

 

Race 12 Portland Berty (8)

Berty was my selection in the Derby and if it wasn’t for a slow start, he would have delivered.  He still showed his class by getting within half a length of Pedro Lee.  Berty likes the outside draw and is 1 from 1 at that track.  He’s run a faster time at Cambridge over this distance than Lantao has at either track.  If should be a great race and I have them marked as a lot closer so clearly Berty is the value runner in this.  Zamah is completely unpredictable but he could be one for the blowout in the exotics.

Confidence 1/5

Rated priced 2.2 currently 2.7

Third.  On the surface, that was a disappointing effort.  Missed the jump and seemed to struggle to make inroads.  Zamah was disappointing – but will show up when not expected.

M9 Addington

Just the second meeting back at Addington after the resanding so all dogs today having their first start at Addington for near enough a month.  Expect form to take a little time to settle down.

Race 4 Mitcham Queen (3)

It’s another pretty even race but she does look overs.  She was racing in C4 back in February so this is a considerable easing in class.  She isn’t the quickest beginner but this is another race without a lot of box speed and she maps to be on the early pace.  I think she needs to as I don’t think Gracias Maestro wants the inside.  She actually has the top equal best time at Addington and her last run second showed she was starting to even the lower class of racing.  Nice each way value at $7.

Confidence 1/5

Rated priced 3.3 currently 7 opened $8.50

Third.  A bit of a tough watch as Gracias Maestro got away better than expected and made it tough for Mitcham Queen and in turn made room for Wilma.  In the end, she did well to check off heels and hang on for third.

Race 7 Homebush Bomber (1)

Just looks well placed here.  Recently downgraded – was C4 back in January so back in C2 should be a lot easier.  Loves the inside draw and should have early pace to beat out Mulberry Sox in box 2.  Opawa Jaws has claims but he maps to get back in this.  Jaws is in the mix and Mulberry Sox could get a nice trail behind Bomber and spice up exotics.

Confidence 1/5

Rated priced 2.8 currently 3.7

First.  Price crashed to 2.30 at the jump so the early money was great value.  Oh, Addington how we have missed you!  The extra confidence came from the new metric which confirmed Bomber was a railer while Jaws preferred a little wider.  Mulberry Sox did what we expected off a slow start.

Race 12 Bees Are Buzzing (1)

Another dog that looks well placed in box 1 – great inside record of 8-3-3.  He doesn’t have a lot of early speed but for a sprint this race is almost devoid of faster trappers.  If he can get out on even terms but most importantly hold the rails, he has to be a good chance of winning – he has the second best time here in the last 90 days and adjusted for draws would take some beating based on that time.

Confidence 1/5

Rated priced 2.8 currently 3.0