As is the custom, free selections for Manawatu today.

Not a lot to choose from today – just the 8 races and 2 C0 races so that just leaves 6 candidate races,

I’ll post Addington selections for subscribers by 1 PM. Addington selections now posted here.

Good luck – we need it today!

David

M3 Palmerston North

Race 8 Electrical Storm (5)

Based on the ratings and sectionals, I have this a lot more even market than the bookies.  I think there’s four genuine chances – Thrilling Otis, BT Ted, Little Scamp and Electrical Storm.  The have the top four PBs although Electrical Storm’s reflect past glories.  Still based on their best times in their last 6 races they are similar – Otis is best with a rating of 59 while Electrical Storm’s best last 6 is 54.  The difference is that Electrical Storm has been racing way harder fields than this – three starts back he was up against a C3/4 field so back to a C1/2 race is a considerable difference.  So in short, he’s been running OK times but up against it.  Back in class today from a draw he’s had a bit of success from, I think he’s a nice each way price.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price $3.50 currently $8.50 opened $10

Recommended bets

1 unit FF win @ 8.50

1 unit TOP3 @ 2.30

Other Thoughts

Race 3

The favourite is a dog having its first start over the T&D and last start saw out maidens.  Pass.

Race 4

The two best are Stay Connected and Uncle Albert.  Stay Connected is more of a distance runner but does show up in the sectionals so has to be a chance.  Uncle Albert rates on top but you have to say he’s not the most genuine even though he won last week.

Race 5

An extremely even race.  Pass.  Waiting for Broke Brad to get a wide draw – he’s a great closer just gives them too much of a start and tends to run into problems from the inside draws.

Race 6

Another very even race.  I don’t think Running Free is the worst and is certainly overs but it is a competitive race.

Race 7

Yet another very even race.  I was close to making Thrilling Samson a selection as it maps to lead but it is a one trick pony – it has to lead this field to win.  Doesn’t have the strongest close so unless it picks the jump it won’t be winning.  You could put a case for most runners in this field – Free Thinker downgrades and won’t mind the draw either.