Good morning.  Sorry for the delay – trying to get the selections up by no later than 11am every day but today is a fail.

A standard low class day at Addington.

Recommended Bets – 4 Units

Race 4 Diamond Crusade (4) 1 unit FF win @ 2.90 First 2.9 units returned (closed longer)

Race 5 Smash Dragon (4) 1 unit FF win @ 2.90 Missed – fourth

Race 6 Troublesome Kev (3) 1 unit FF win @ 2.90 Missed

Race 11 Belfast Demo (7) 1 unit Winsurance (2nd, 3rd, 4th) @ 6.00 (alternatively .5 EW to return around $6.25 if win) Fourth – 1 unit returned

Another day where we did no damage but just needed one more runner to come in.

M3 Addington

Race 4 Diamond Crusade (4)

The three obvious candidates are Diamond Crusade, Macadoodle and Dublin Express.  Diamond Crusade has the three best times here in the last 90 days and 7 out the top 10 best closing sectionals!  While box 4 isn’t ideal, he has won from further out and his best opening sectionals are on par with the other two.  If he can get anywhere near a reasonable start he should be too strong over the closing stages.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 2.70 currently 2.90

First. Nice start to the day.  The confidence was high once he started so well but he needed all the 520m to get over the top of the leader.

Race 5 Smash Dragon (4)

She looks to have the early speed to put herself into the race.  She has five of the top ten opening sectionals and has a pretty decent record in the blue rug.  The obvious dangers are Bert in box 3 and Crab Apple in box 5.  Box speed is gold and Smash Dragon has plenty of it plus rates on top.  Smash Dragon was beaten last start by Liquidator who goes around in race 1 at $1.80.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 3 currently 3.5

Fourth.  Once she didn’t get the lead it was pretty much all over especially as the dog in the red rug made a great beginning.  The winner has run 3.5 lengths faster than any run at Addington previously.

Race 6 Troublesome Kev (3)

He has the best time over the distance and maps to lead.  He ran three races over 732m recently and was on the pace for varying degrees of time before the extreme distance got to him.  Back a bit in distance against a lower class of dogs he should be right in this.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 2.8 currently 3.40 opened 3.70

Missed.  Frustrating – small margins once again.  Kev poked his nose in front at the start but got worried by the dog on his outer and then checked himself and really showed little interest until the end of the race when he made up ground.  I thought he was a decent chance in this but that’s racing.

Race 11 Belfast Demo (7)

The speed map and draw suggests this dog is worth a little specing.  There looks to be outward pressure from the dogs on the inside in boxes 1 and 3 (Adobe Derulo).  Adobe Derulo is also a little suspect off the lids which is not what you want from your favourite and while he’s won 3 races, all have been from box 7.  Meanwhile, Belfast Demo is in box 7 which suits downgraded last start from C3 has has 4 of the top 5 opening sectionals.  He’s not the strongest closer but as we see consistently if a dog can get out in front, any problems behind mitigate the closing sectionals.  he actually rates a close second in this behind Adobe Derulo who I would mark down based on the draw.  A bit of a throw at the stumps but definite overs at $10.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 5 currently 10

Kind of.  No damage done and for once the Winsurance option played out in our favour.  The start didn’t quite work out and the inside dogs got the jump while Belfast Demo was up on the outside.