Updated at 4 PM.

Have to say it’s one of the weakest Monday cards at Addington I’ve seen for some time – 5 C0 races plus a C0 distance race as well.

I won’t have any selections for the first races which are C0 but am keen to see what the track is playing like with the bad weather over the last couple of days.

Next update by 4PM.

David

Recommended Bets

Race 8 Fond of You – 1 unit FF win @ $4 Fourth

Race 9 Regal Jock – 1 unit FF win @ $6.50 Fourth

Race 9 Beau View Winnie – 1 unit FF win @ $6.50 Second

Race 11 Alternate Shot – 2 units @ 2.50

M9 Addington

Lots of C0 races so pass on those.

One of the things I want to include in the new staking model is races where there are two or sometimes three dogs worth backing at the price.  We’ve been been burnt a bit recently by me identifying two dogs and backing the wrong one.  In other scenarios, a favourite might be worth backing but a small secondary bet on a value runner could also be justified.  Race 9 is an example of a race where I like two dogs and we can back both to win and hope to get a decent return on the race.

Race 8

In the C0 Distance race, Fond of You might get an early lead and that could help – however, Seductive Kiwi does look drawn well and looks to have a stronger closing sectional.  These two have a clear class differential over the rest of the field.  Got the lead but needed a bigger break.  Seductive Kiwi has his chance and missed.

Race 9

The two top rated runners Regal Jock and Beau View Winnie are both offered at decent value.  The favourite has won just one from 7 here and has a top rating of 35 which is the second worst in this field so happy to play against.

Favourite just started two well.  BVW a nice second.

Race 11

Hard to argue against Alternate Shot.  Just four race starts and has won from box 2 – no runs yet in the red.  Looks to have the early speed to make the most of the red rug and should be hard to run down.  Homebush Hotshot is out of form but always has the potential to upset.  Worth including on a wider quaddie ticket.

Race 12

Looks like an even race to finish the day.  I would include Grey Wind in quaddies etc.  It wins as often as the Wallabies do at Eden Park but in this race it looks a rough chance for a boilover.  Ran second 2 starts back.  Actually has the best PB in the field and shows up in the early sectionals, as does Goldstar Lorenzo.  The way the McCook kennel is going you’d have to have the favourite but it’s pretty short at $2.