A big night at Addington with the Nationals.  The weather (first hand) is OK – a little chillier than yesterday but so far overcast without anything to worry about immediately.

Some great racing tonight but as we have seen consistently, dogs paying less than $2 are no certainties.

I’m struggling to find any runners we can back with confidence and get value.  I’ll post thoughts on each race – 1-6 are posted now.

No updates tonight.

David

Recommended bets

The only dog that looks like a decent bet is Student Loan in race 9 and it still dependent on the start and he’s not great value at $1,90.  That said, if he can snag the lead, the $1.90 would be much better value.

It looks a tough night to make money so I will most likely play a couple of the value runners for very small amount and look at the late quaddie and anchor Student Loan on one ticket

Suggested late quaddie – $25 for 20+%

R9 – 2
R10- 1, 2, 4, 8
R11 – 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8
R12 – 1, 2, 6, 7, 8

 

M9 Addington

Race 1

Looks like a race in two 5 Willene Bale and 7 Opawa Anita.

Race 2

A really even race with a number of runners coming back after a decent break.  Know Charisma (1) has been running good races recently so has the form on the board but not convinced the inside box suits.

Race 3

Hard to argue against It’s Babe (1) – just one loss and that was a second.  Dembe rates second best and actually has a slightly better PB.

Race 4

The two CD visitors and favourites Bronksi Beat and Speed Call look well placed.  The blowout for exotics could be Goldstar Spook – maps to get a run inbehind the favs and actually has the best PB here.

Race 5

Tough betting race with the favourite having his first NZ start and the money is on.  Marvaha Bale rates well but those ratings were from inside draws so another where the draw doesn’t help.

Race 6

Same again two favoruites look well placed.  Money Spinner is the only one with similar ratings but again not sure the draw suits.  If he can get away well he could upset especially as he’s downgrading for this.

Race 7

La Rochelle is a deserved favourite and generally a case of if she leads she wins.  With Lantao in 6 and La Rochelle in 7, it could give a drag into the race for Smooth Step (8) who looks overs at $21.

Race 8

A C0 for $7500! The two best credentialled dogs are Chrissie and Superstar although neither have run serious time here.  It’s a strange race from a ratings point of view with the two dogs with the best PBs – Captain Tim and Epic Galaxy at ginormous odds although to be fair Galaxy has yet to win and Tim has just 1 win.  Logic says Chrissie and Superstar but logic doesn’t win races.

Race 9

Student Loan looks to be one of the better bets on the night.  Has won 4-7 over the distance and is actually the only dog in the field to have won over this distance.  Drawn well so if he can jump cleanly and avoid trouble he looks well placed.

Race 10

Strange race to analyse.  It’s a Blaze rates clearly on top but last couple of races dont give confidence.  Know Keeper is a strong finisher but gets back.  Cooper could lead and he was won here rating an impressive 91 while Ozzie loves the outside draws and is not out of contention.

Race 11

Based on ratings and times, Wolf Racketeer and Hilton Hope rate on top while favourite Seve has a great record from box 8.  However, there are a number of dogs who could really threaten if they pick the jump such as Romeo and Mitcham Magic.

Race 12

An even race made even tougher with Big Time Brie having her first sprint start at Addington.  For quaddies, you would have to have Flappable, Epic Diamond, Trousseau and Brie as a minimum.  For odds, you might consider Tweet About It as well.