Second meeting today is at Addington.

Worth noting there’s a few C0 races which for reasons I’ve documented, I’m happy to skip.

Also worth noting the short priced favourite curse has struck at Palmerston North – Big Time Vegas looked well placed, was backed as if unbeatable, and was beaten.  We have been warned!  There’s a few races with a very short priced favourite this afternoon so perhaps one approach is to find the next best which will be at likely inflated odds.

Recommended Bets

Race 5 Xabil Bale (8) 1 unit FF win @ 3.20 – save on the quinella with the favourite Second

Race 9 Rowdy’s Message 1 unit FF win @ 2.50

 

M9 Addington

Race 1

Swanson rates on top but happy to skip the race at $1.70.  Not sure Mine Hunter will appreciate box 1 – perhaps Know Farewell could be the upsetter?  Swanson was too short but perhaps in retrospect, Mine Hunter won’t mind the inside draw after all!

Race 5

Looks like a two dog race – Epic Addi (3) is favourite but Xabil Bale looks a real danger – downgrades, loves the outside draw and is effectively rated the same.  Go with the value with Xabil.  Gee, that’s a tough result – get the right race to play against the fav and run second.  Tough game at times,

Race 7

Alternate Shot (2) is favourite and hard to argue against that but at $2 is hardly great shopping.  Main dangers appear Beau View Winnie (7) and harker Hustler (4).  BVW benefits from having no runner in box 8.  Ouch this is becoming a tad repetitive – another second.  Wasn’t even a nose in it although the exotics helped.

Race 8

Another race where there are two standout runners – Willene Bale (6) rates on top but $1.20 does not provide a lot of room for any risk.  Conversely, Upstart Crow (5) is all risk but at his best or even better times he would definitely be competitive.  Back after a break and appears to have stayed away from too much pud.

Race 9 Rowdy’s Message (2)

Looks well placed – nice draw, top rated, and from the McCook kennels which has been winning everything recently.  Can’t really do much more wrong than that – slow away, ran in to trouble along the way and nutted for third.  The trick today it seems is to back everything except the favourite!

Race 11

Coffee Biscuit (2) rates on top but not much value in the $2.  Must include in quaddie.  Upsetter could be Beauden John (7) who is a two time winner here and similar ratings to the favourite.  The blowout could be Lorenzo – on his day has early speed and that always helps.