No Selections for September

We're back racing today but it seems like the perfect time to reassess things.

In a way it couldn't be a better example of why with yet another meeting canned.  It has happened far to frequently and is clearly an issue for the industry.

Let me be clear though - the welfare of racing animals must always be first, second and third priority.  So no issues on that front.  The concern is that the number of meetings and races abandoned has reached close to crisis.

The review of greyhound racing is another concern and I'm sure I'm not the only person who would want more security and greater confidence in the future of the industry.

Finally, one clear theme with selections had been the difficulties we saw in lining up form after runners had had an enforced break.  Again, we have dogs who will have had at least a 2 week break and many longer so I suspect that it will take a week or three for the ratings and form to level out.

So all in all, it's a perfect time to put things on hold and then review things at the end of the month.

David


Monday 16 August 2021 M9 Addington

Second meeting today is at Addington.

Worth noting there's a few C0 races which for reasons I've documented, I'm happy to skip.

Also worth noting the short priced favourite curse has struck at Palmerston North - Big Time Vegas looked well placed, was backed as if unbeatable, and was beaten.  We have been warned!  There's a few races with a very short priced favourite this afternoon so perhaps one approach is to find the next best which will be at likely inflated odds.

Recommended Bets

Race 5 Xabil Bale (8) 1 unit FF win @ 3.20 - save on the quinella with the favourite Second

Race 9 Rowdy's Message 1 unit FF win @ 2.50

 

M9 Addington

Race 1

Swanson rates on top but happy to skip the race at $1.70.  Not sure Mine Hunter will appreciate box 1 - perhaps Know Farewell could be the upsetter?  Swanson was too short but perhaps in retrospect, Mine Hunter won't mind the inside draw after all!

Race 5

Looks like a two dog race - Epic Addi (3) is favourite but Xabil Bale looks a real danger - downgrades, loves the outside draw and is effectively rated the same.  Go with the value with Xabil.  Gee, that's a tough result - get the right race to play against the fav and run second.  Tough game at times,

Race 7

Alternate Shot (2) is favourite and hard to argue against that but at $2 is hardly great shopping.  Main dangers appear Beau View Winnie (7) and harker Hustler (4).  BVW benefits from having no runner in box 8.  Ouch this is becoming a tad repetitive - another second.  Wasn't even a nose in it although the exotics helped.

Race 8

Another race where there are two standout runners - Willene Bale (6) rates on top but $1.20 does not provide a lot of room for any risk.  Conversely, Upstart Crow (5) is all risk but at his best or even better times he would definitely be competitive.  Back after a break and appears to have stayed away from too much pud.

Race 9 Rowdy's Message (2)

Looks well placed - nice draw, top rated, and from the McCook kennels which has been winning everything recently.  Can't really do much more wrong than that - slow away, ran in to trouble along the way and nutted for third.  The trick today it seems is to back everything except the favourite!

Race 11

Coffee Biscuit (2) rates on top but not much value in the $2.  Must include in quaddie.  Upsetter could be Beauden John (7) who is a two time winner here and similar ratings to the favourite.  The blowout could be Lorenzo - on his day has early speed and that always helps.


Monday 16 August 2021 M3 Palmerston North

Good morning.

No selections for the last couple of days - I've been on the road and the reality has been that it's been hard enough to keep up regular selections in normal times so being away from the office really made it near impossible.

Just the two meetings today - 10 races at Palmerston North and then 12 at Addington.  I'll post selections for Addington separately.

Bonus Back at PN races 1 and 2 as well.

Cheers

David

M3 Palmerston North

Nothing I reallly like at the prices - Vegas (race 6) rates really strongly and should be winning while Power Boom (race 8) should appreciate being back at Palmerston North but both are extremely short.  Race 9 should be a match race between Cumbria Lad and Big Time Angel - it will be interesting to see if Angel can get back to her best though.

With the Bonus back races, both are C0 races and race 1 has a favourite having first start so hard to back with any confidence.

Not interested in the Super Surge today either.

That leaves the Rugs Challenge and i have box 2 clearly on top ... but so too do the bookies who are only offering $1.80!

Hopefully a bit more of interest for us at Addington.

 


Thursday 12 August 2021 M9 Addington

A big night at Addington with the Nationals.  The weather (first hand) is OK - a little chillier than yesterday but so far overcast without anything to worry about immediately.

Some great racing tonight but as we have seen consistently, dogs paying less than $2 are no certainties.

I'm struggling to find any runners we can back with confidence and get value.  I'll post thoughts on each race - 1-6 are posted now.

No updates tonight.

David

Recommended bets

The only dog that looks like a decent bet is Student Loan in race 9 and it still dependent on the start and he's not great value at $1,90.  That said, if he can snag the lead, the $1.90 would be much better value.

It looks a tough night to make money so I will most likely play a couple of the value runners for very small amount and look at the late quaddie and anchor Student Loan on one ticket

Suggested late quaddie - $25 for 20+%

R9 - 2
R10- 1, 2, 4, 8
R11 - 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8
R12 - 1, 2, 6, 7, 8

 

M9 Addington

Race 1

Looks like a race in two 5 Willene Bale and 7 Opawa Anita.

Race 2

A really even race with a number of runners coming back after a decent break.  Know Charisma (1) has been running good races recently so has the form on the board but not convinced the inside box suits.

Race 3

Hard to argue against It's Babe (1) - just one loss and that was a second.  Dembe rates second best and actually has a slightly better PB.

Race 4

The two CD visitors and favourites Bronksi Beat and Speed Call look well placed.  The blowout for exotics could be Goldstar Spook - maps to get a run inbehind the favs and actually has the best PB here.

Race 5

Tough betting race with the favourite having his first NZ start and the money is on.  Marvaha Bale rates well but those ratings were from inside draws so another where the draw doesn't help.

Race 6

Same again two favoruites look well placed.  Money Spinner is the only one with similar ratings but again not sure the draw suits.  If he can get away well he could upset especially as he's downgrading for this.

Race 7

La Rochelle is a deserved favourite and generally a case of if she leads she wins.  With Lantao in 6 and La Rochelle in 7, it could give a drag into the race for Smooth Step (8) who looks overs at $21.

Race 8

A C0 for $7500! The two best credentialled dogs are Chrissie and Superstar although neither have run serious time here.  It's a strange race from a ratings point of view with the two dogs with the best PBs - Captain Tim and Epic Galaxy at ginormous odds although to be fair Galaxy has yet to win and Tim has just 1 win.  Logic says Chrissie and Superstar but logic doesn't win races.

Race 9

Student Loan looks to be one of the better bets on the night.  Has won 4-7 over the distance and is actually the only dog in the field to have won over this distance.  Drawn well so if he can jump cleanly and avoid trouble he looks well placed.

Race 10

Strange race to analyse.  It's a Blaze rates clearly on top but last couple of races dont give confidence.  Know Keeper is a strong finisher but gets back.  Cooper could lead and he was won here rating an impressive 91 while Ozzie loves the outside draws and is not out of contention.

Race 11

Based on ratings and times, Wolf Racketeer and Hilton Hope rate on top while favourite Seve has a great record from box 8.  However, there are a number of dogs who could really threaten if they pick the jump such as Romeo and Mitcham Magic.

Race 12

An even race made even tougher with Big Time Brie having her first sprint start at Addington.  For quaddies, you would have to have Flappable, Epic Diamond, Trousseau and Brie as a minimum.  For odds, you might consider Tweet About It as well.

 


No Selections Tuesday and Wednesday

Sorry, I am out of circulation today and tomorrow so no selections.

There will be selections for Thursday night.

David


Monday 9 August 2021 M9 Addington

Updated at 4 PM.

Have to say it's one of the weakest Monday cards at Addington I've seen for some time - 5 C0 races plus a C0 distance race as well.

I won't have any selections for the first races which are C0 but am keen to see what the track is playing like with the bad weather over the last couple of days.

Next update by 4PM.

David

Recommended Bets

Race 8 Fond of You - 1 unit FF win @ $4 Fourth

Race 9 Regal Jock - 1 unit FF win @ $6.50 Fourth

Race 9 Beau View Winnie - 1 unit FF win @ $6.50 Second

Race 11 Alternate Shot - 2 units @ 2.50

M9 Addington

Lots of C0 races so pass on those.

One of the things I want to include in the new staking model is races where there are two or sometimes three dogs worth backing at the price.  We've been been burnt a bit recently by me identifying two dogs and backing the wrong one.  In other scenarios, a favourite might be worth backing but a small secondary bet on a value runner could also be justified.  Race 9 is an example of a race where I like two dogs and we can back both to win and hope to get a decent return on the race.

Race 8

In the C0 Distance race, Fond of You might get an early lead and that could help - however, Seductive Kiwi does look drawn well and looks to have a stronger closing sectional.  These two have a clear class differential over the rest of the field.  Got the lead but needed a bigger break.  Seductive Kiwi has his chance and missed.

Race 9

The two top rated runners Regal Jock and Beau View Winnie are both offered at decent value.  The favourite has won just one from 7 here and has a top rating of 35 which is the second worst in this field so happy to play against.

Favourite just started two well.  BVW a nice second.

Race 11

Hard to argue against Alternate Shot.  Just four race starts and has won from box 2 - no runs yet in the red.  Looks to have the early speed to make the most of the red rug and should be hard to run down.  Homebush Hotshot is out of form but always has the potential to upset.  Worth including on a wider quaddie ticket.

Race 12

Looks like an even race to finish the day.  I would include Grey Wind in quaddies etc.  It wins as often as the Wallabies do at Eden Park but in this race it looks a rough chance for a boilover.  Ran second 2 starts back.  Actually has the best PB in the field and shows up in the early sectionals, as does Goldstar Lorenzo.  The way the McCook kennel is going you'd have to have the favourite but it's pretty short at $2.

 

 


Monday 9 August 2021 M3 Palmerston North

Just the 9 races today and nothing that really stands out.

There's Bonus Back promo on races 1 and 2.

Selections for Addington posted this afternoon.

I'm working on a different staking model.  Not really a reflection of last week where we had no luck - the previous week, the winners were flowing nicely.  It's more a case that I feel some of the value runners are being missed.  So no staking plan today.

David

M3 Palmerston North

Race 1

A C0 race to start the day.  Big Time Flame is the short priced favourite and the money has come.  Interestingly drawn 6 while first start was in box 1.  The value runner based on ratings is Highview Howard (5) but hard to recommend as a solid bet. Flame fourth so money back.  Another example of why I try and steer clear of C0 races although the winner was third rated.  Howard third so money back either way.

Race 2

Zac is short and possibly too short but it's hard to see where the dangers are.  Defer Fire rates on top but hasn't raced at PN so hard to back that rating with any confidence.  Little Scamp has the best time here but she is a 7 race winner but at 5 is likely struggling to race to her best.  That said she did rate 50 7 starts ago so can't be completely ruled out.  Harry is another dog who has run time but struggles for consistency and generally looks to want wider.  Hard to find one to beat Zac but Little Scamp looks to be at crazy odds - you can get $18 winsurance (2nd, 3rd, and 4th).  Zac wins - Little Scamp jumped and lead but then drifted.

Race 4 Liberty Taker(1)/My Bentley (9 - box 2)

The two best chances look to be the inside pair.  The concern with Liberty Taker is that he's yet to win from the inside box although he does possess some early box speed.  He does wander out a bit but that said so too do the dogs on his immediate outside.  Based on the prices, you can cover both and still double your money if one wins.  Liberty Taker just gave Versace too much of a break.  My Bentley jumped ok but then drifted.

Race 7 Broke Brad (7)

Hard to recommend Brad based on his form and there's a couple of likely up and comers who look tough to beat.  But based on his times, he could pop up and double figure odds and the think I particularly like is that he gets an outside box.  He's pretty much hopeless from inside but with an outside draw he can find his paws and then potentially unleash down the outside.  One to include in quaddies etc.  Each way with an emphasis on the place.  Nice to get one right.  $5 place on the tote was outstanding value.

Other thoughts

Race 6 Cumbria Lad wins if he continues to race like he has.  There's a few here who will make the most of even a slight slip from Cumbria Lad.  Cumbria Lad a fraction slow away and checked at top of the straight.  Nice second but was never going to catch Cooper.

Race 9 Big Time Angel has been a favourite of mine.  She's starting to get back in class so it's a bit of an acid test today.  On pure class she should be winning - until recently she was the track record holder.  She does want away from the rail so that's another concern.  However, her best time in her last 6 starts is competitive so she has to be in the mix and the way the field is drawn Big Time Ted is right in this also.  Nice win to Angel - opened at $3.50 so well done if you got some of that.


Friday 6 August 2021 M9 Whanganui (updated)

No selections for Addington today.  Lots of C0 races and some even higher class races.

I think it's fair to say that I've had a well publicised love affair with Addington dogs but after the last couple of weeks, I'm seriously thinking of filing for divorce.  Just nothing seems to be going right but we got through runs like that but it has been tough work the last couple of meetings in particular.

Back to Hatrick for the evening meeting - just the 10 races tonight so don't miss out on the late quaddie and place 6 etc which all start a couple of races early tonight.

David

M9 Hatrick

Race 2 Hypothetical (8)

A pretty average field to be fair but based on the sectionals, the start should be all Hypothetical.  He doesn't mind an outside draw and there's only 7 runners which helps as well.  Paving Way is the only runner with a better time than Hypothetical in the last 90 days.  Tp be fair there's no much between Otis and Hypothetical - both have been in C3 recently so a C1/2 should be a lot easier - but Hypothetical maps to get the better run.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 2.80 currently 3.30

Recommended bet

1 unit FF win @ 3.30

The dogs just don't seem to be reading the previews!  Hypothetical had to lead to win but was beaten out by Otis who won comfortably.

Race 10 Big Time Katy (2)

A tough way to end the card but I think there's some value with Katy especially from box 2.  Since she moved up to C4, she hasn't drawn inside box 3.  Her last start in C3, she was in box 2 and won rating 72 - her PB.  Anything near a repeat of that run should be good enough tonight.  The start will be critical but we say that pretty much every start.  There's two possible scenarios but all need to account for Blaze wanting to move off the rail.  If he gets the jump, Katy could get a run inside.  That said, Blaze has struggled a little more with the starts as he's moved up in class.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 3 currently 5.5

Recommended bet

1 unit FF win @ 5.5

Other thoughts

Race 5 Big Time Fuzz (2) looks well placed and rates on top.  As I wrote that, Fuzz is late scratched so it really gives Millie in box 1 every chance.  Had every chance but beaten by a better dog on the night.

Race 6 Sparkle Pony downgrades and does look good on paper.  Concern is that she's an out and out scouter.  Her early speed can help her out but there's also early speed with Big Time Jewel.  The upsetter could be So Like Me (1) who could stick to the rail and pop up if there's any problems further out.  Almost worked out as per the convoluted plot but we continue the run of seconds and thirds.  Still, live in place 6!

Race 7 Jillaby Litsa is my nemesis.  I can literally never pick her when she wins.  She's had 4 seconds in her last 10 starts or so and I think I've been on her every time.  She's draw out today so that could help especially if she gets a drag in from Lantao.  The dog that looks best placed is Atomic - he's struggled in recent ratings but he heads left harder than a 1970's union organiser.  So you would think box 1 would suit perfectly especially with Odette likely to be slow out.  Well, there's the recipe - I tell you I haven't backed Jillaby Litsa and then you unload on her.  Can't miss.


Thursday 5 August 2021 M9 Addington

Tonight we see the postponed feature meeting from a couple of weeks back so a couple of competitive finals. No […]

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Wednesday 4 August 2021 Whanganui

Good morning.

Apologies for late post - other commitments this morning.

That said not a lot to get excited about here - 14 races spread across 2 meetings.  I've posted some thoughts on a few races which should the challenges I had in find any recommended bets.  The one thing we have seen is when in doubt, don't punt it out - there's been a few tough days recently and I think there could be today as well.

David

Meeting M3

Race 4

Kay's Last (4) won last start but the two who rate as well are So Severe (7) and Milo Tonight (8).  Not enthused by the draw for either but they have the sectionals on the board.  Trifecta in 1.  You're welcome ;-)

Race 5

Looks a two do race between Wifi Robyn (4) and My Bentley (3). My Bentley got the start and wins - Wifi Robyn bombed the start.

Race 9

Big Time Quinn (6) was close to being a bet but there's no Each Way value and competition from BT Zac in box 4 and Yuri in box 1.  Yuri is completely out of form but recently downgraded and a far better draw could be the oracle.  Note that Zac is the second leg of the Super Surge. Zac wins, Quinn third.  Saved our money.

Race 10

Carnarge dominantes the opening sectionals while Johnny Mohawk does likewise with the closing sectionals.  It's actually a pretty tough race but even though Carnage hasn't yet run any time in 9 starts, she looks like the early leader so has to go into the mix.  Summer Glee and Penny need to go into quaddies. Those were the four you needed for the F4 with Summer Glee putting some nice value into the quaddie.

Meeting M9

Race 2

Big Time Versace (1) rates on top and looks well placed based on times and ratings.  No value at 1.70 though.  Only one start from box 2, none from box 1, and from the inside draw she wanted out further so that is the potential issue.  BTV wins. Seemed to handle the inside draw OK - admittedly found space on the outside and the race I was concerned about was at PN.

Race 3

For quaddies, the two best options are Defer Fire (5) and Opawa Lyndsey (1).  In theory, that should get you through the quaddie.  Missed And there it is - theories are great in theory but the favourite missed the jump and Lyndsey was just too slow to threaten the winner.  Interestingly, the two favs were clearly rated 1/2 while the winner was clear third rated.

Race 4

Tuff Tiger is priced to be the anchor but he's still to show real time at Hatrick albeit after only 2 starts.  Dottie Bell has early speed while the ones who could add value to the quaddie are Hardcore Bart and BT Porsche.  It's a tough race as you can argue that Tuff Tiger has shown more down south and should be winning while the numbers say based on his current efforts it's a lot more even.  Tuff Tiger wins but a close go.