14 June 2021 M3 Palmerston North

As is the custom, free selections for Manawatu today.

Not a lot to choose from today - just the 8 races and 2 C0 races so that just leaves 6 candidate races,

I'll post Addington selections for subscribers by 1 PM. Addington selections now posted here.

Good luck - we need it today!

David

M3 Palmerston North

Race 8 Electrical Storm (5)

Based on the ratings and sectionals, I have this a lot more even market than the bookies.  I think there's four genuine chances - Thrilling Otis, BT Ted, Little Scamp and Electrical Storm.  The have the top four PBs although Electrical Storm's reflect past glories.  Still based on their best times in their last 6 races they are similar - Otis is best with a rating of 59 while Electrical Storm's best last 6 is 54.  The difference is that Electrical Storm has been racing way harder fields than this - three starts back he was up against a C3/4 field so back to a C1/2 race is a considerable difference.  So in short, he's been running OK times but up against it.  Back in class today from a draw he's had a bit of success from, I think he's a nice each way price.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price $3.50 currently $8.50 opened $10

Recommended bets

1 unit FF win @ 8.50

1 unit TOP3 @ 2.30

Other Thoughts

Race 3

The favourite is a dog having its first start over the T&D and last start saw out maidens.  Pass.

Race 4

The two best are Stay Connected and Uncle Albert.  Stay Connected is more of a distance runner but does show up in the sectionals so has to be a chance.  Uncle Albert rates on top but you have to say he's not the most genuine even though he won last week.

Race 5

An extremely even race.  Pass.  Waiting for Broke Brad to get a wide draw - he's a great closer just gives them too much of a start and tends to run into problems from the inside draws.

Race 6

Another very even race.  I don't think Running Free is the worst and is certainly overs but it is a competitive race.

Race 7

Yet another very even race.  I was close to making Thrilling Samson a selection as it maps to lead but it is a one trick pony - it has to lead this field to win.  Doesn't have the strongest close so unless it picks the jump it won't be winning.  You could put a case for most runners in this field - Free Thinker downgrades and won't mind the draw either.

 


Monday 14 June 2021 M9 Addington

The second meeting today is at Addington as per normal but with a slightly later start.  First race is not […]

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Sunday 13 June 2021 M9 Manuakau

A great day of racing at Manukau today with both the Silver Collar for the extreme distance and the Amazing […]

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Friday 11 June 2021

Updated at 1.45pm Water water everywhere and it’s still hard to find a winner.  Monty did a great job us […]

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Thursday 10 June 2021

Updated 2pm with Addington selections.  What a blood bath at Cambridge!

Updated 11.10 with best of the night at Addington.  Next update at 2pm.

Good morning.

I've had a decent look at Cambridge and there's nothing worth backing.

Thrilling Norman (race 7) looks the best placed but $1.45 is too short. Too short when you miss the start and run into problems!

House Surgeon (race 4) rates on top but his better times in recent racing have been at Manukau.  He maps to get back a little which could be trouble from the squeeze.  Yep, got into trouble.

Peach Melba (race 5) is another who rates well but just concerned about the inside draw and speed with Bugsy Brown in box 2.  Two dogs rate slightly better than Melba - Thrilling Milo (7) and Canadian Ace (6).  Of the two, Milo could warm up the day especially as the outside draw suits, Milo all round.  Never looked like losing ... won by a headAnother short priced favourite loses but once more the favourite was way too short.

In Race 3, Thrilling Freddy (7) and Marry Prince (2) look the obvious quinella.  Freddy rates marginally on top but there's always an asterisk first time up after a break.  Marry was the value of the two and once Freddy missed the start and Marry Prince got it, the market was well off.

I'll post selections for Addington by 2pm.  With the evening meetings, I like to see any weight changes or late scratchings.

David

Recommended Bets - 5 Units

M9 Race 4 Homebush Glitch (2) 1 unit Winsurance (2nd, 3rd, 4th) @ 4.80 (Aussies bookies now offer similar markers eg MBO) Third.  1 unit returned.

M9 Race 9 Know Keeper (8) 1 unit FF win @ 4.40 Fourth

M9 Race 10 Goldstar Whitey (3) 1 unit Winsurance (2nd, 3rd, 4th) @ 7.5 Third 1 unit returned

M9 Race 12 Monty Mad Hammer (2) 2 units FF win at 2.25 (early bet, now $1.95). First 4.5 units returned

Another tough night and once again close but no cigar.  That said, happy to make a (small) profit on a night when it could have been challenging.

M9 Addington

Race 4 Homebush Glitch (2)

As I've commented before, Glitch has to be one of the best trappers in the country.  It does make things difficult to predict because he generally struggles in C5 to see the distance out (at least at a strong clip).  However, with his box speed he can always put himself into the race and if there's trouble behind could easily be left in front.  The top winning chances look to be Seve (4) and Edge of Reason (7) and Opawa Bailey is strong closer with a good record from box 1.  Glitch has the top three opening sectionals in the last three months and five of the top 10.  He has a pretty good record from the inside boxes too.  He's paying $4.80 Winsurance to run fourth or better and based on his early speed and the map, he has to be a good chance of doing at least that.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 4.5 currently 9  opened at 10

Third.  Can't complain when they do what we expect them to do - just needed a touch of chaos but the two that beat him got a decent start,  The market had him rated 4th best so we outperformed the market :-)

Race 9 Know Keeper (8)

A really interesting race based on the map.  I have the two inside dogs wanting off the rails, while a number of the middle and outside dogs want the rails.  Out widest of all Know Keeper (8) isn't a quick starter but you get the sense that with the map, there could be trouble at the start which will minimise any benefit from dogs with early speed.  Conversely Know Keeper is a strong closer and likes the outside draw.  It's a race where it's hard to be confident about any runner, but if the map does play out the way it looks, Know Keeper will be the main beneficiary.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 3.5 currently 4.4  opened at 5.50

The start almost went the way we had scripted - there was some serious issues at the start with the 7 dog heading across but the inside dogs just managed to get away better than mapped.  Know Keeper ended up just a couple of lengths from the winner but never threatened to win.

Race 10 Goldstar Whitey (3)

This is another interesting race with a couple of dogs with nice sectionals but questionable draws - particularly Hilton Headache.  Taieri Taylee (8) rates highly but he may find one or two inside a little quicker off the lids.  His best would put this field away but he's been struggling to replicate his run in early April.  The surprise is that in the last three months, only two dogs have run faster than Whitey and thats HH and TT and both have questions marks.  You would think a vacate box in 4 can only help.  A throw at the stumps but Whitey looks overs based on his times and the best long value EW bet of the night.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 6 currently 13

Like Glitch, a dog that the market hadn't rated well.  Just quietly we did get the trifecta in three runners but admittedly two were the favourites.

Race 12 Monty Mad Hammer (2)

Monty looks well placed in this.  He's a genuine C5 dog so C4 and has just downgraded so a C4 race should be well within his grasp.  He does have issues at the start but the sectionals show he appears a couple of times in the 5 best opening sectionals in the last 90 days in this race which is more a reflection of the opposition.  If he runs anywhere near his better form, he should be winning this - his best rating in the last 6 starts is 82 (back in April when he won a C5 from box 7) - not one runner has rated 82 in their lifetime.  There's always a flag at the start in any dog race but so long as he doesn't mess the start up, if he can get on terms at the end of the back straight he should be winning this.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price 2 currently 2.25 - I suspect he'll shorten over the day too

Recommended bets

2 units FF win at 2.25

First.  We haven't had a lot go right over the last week or three and on a couple of occasions it looked like Monty was truly mad.  I'll never work out how he did manage to win it but as we noted given the chance to prove it he was a level above this field. 


Wednesday 9 June 2021 M3 Whanganui

The right call to put the cue in the rack yesterday and another similar day so not a lot of […]

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Tuesday 8 June 2021 M3 Addington

Good morning.

Another day where the bookies should be winning and I really can't label anything with any confidence.

A couple of dogs running around at short prices too so no value there.

So no selections but thoughts on a couple of races.

In race 2, Billy Budd (2) gets his favourite draw.  But he maps to be 2-4 lengths off the leaders and while he dominates the closing sectionals, he just gets back too far too regularly to back to win with any confidence.  It is a TAB Bonus Back race though. Completely blew the start but strong enough closing sectional to somehow get up for fourth and bonus money back.

In race 5, Smash Dragon (1) downgrades and gets box 1.  She maps to be the early leader and the early sectionals say she should get the early lead.  The problem is that her best times aren't really competitive so while she should lead, we're relying on luck for her to go on to win.  Should be an interesting race with the two start dog Liquidator (6) a very short favourite.  Went to script so right call not to make it a punt - got to the lead easy enough but the other favoured runners were in touch and had clear air.

Back again tomorrow.

 


7 June 2021 M9 Addington

Bookies look well placed today! A bit unfortunate yesterday with the top selection getting an injury.  The value runner was […]

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Monday 7 June 2021 M3 Palmerston North

Good morning.

Only 9 races at Palmerston North but some really even racing.  No TAB specials this week.

I'll post Addington selections for subscribers by 2pm.

David

 

Recommended Bets - 3 Units

M3 Race 7 Thrilling Samson (6) 1 unit FF win @ 5.50

M3 Race 7 Thrilling Samson (6) 1 unit TOP 3 @ 1.75

M3 Race 9 Cumbria Lad (4) 1 unit TOP3 @ 2.70

M3 Palmerston North

Race 7 Thrilling Samson (6)

Likes the outside boxes which should help.  The key to this race looks to be the early sectionals - Samson has 3 of the top 4 opening sectionals in the last 90 days and if he can ping the lid, any trouble at the start plays into his paws.  His PB and his winning percentage are also competitive in this race so I've marked him shorter than the bookies have so potentially some value here.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 3.50 currently 5.50

Race 9 Cumbria Lad (4)

Won well last week - in fact he clearly has the two best times here in the last 30 days and both were winning efforts.  The middle box shouldn't be an issue as he looks to have the box speed to compete early with the speed on his outer and possibly box 1.  If he can get the clear run as predicted, it looks the best placed in this field.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 2.50 currently 2.70


Sunday 6 June M9 Manukau

The greys play very much the support gig with the Jewels harness meeting at Cambridge today, not to mention Wingatui […]

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